Sell or not to sell?

Okay, so a few months ago-during the harvest season-I bought tons of rice bran. By tons I meant it literally, I stocked up to 4500 tons of those things. During that time, I was able to buy 'em at quite some knockdown price, ranging from IDR 500/kg to IDR 750/kg. However, the price inflation for this season is, what to say? Kinda late, maybe that's how it is. Usually, rice bran's price is already hooked up to more than IDR 1,200/kg during August and might reach IDR 1,700/kg during September-November, especially if the rainy season comes late.

However, something's changing this year. Me, and most of rice bran dealer as well, just like the usual, was able to stock up quite a good number of the goods. The problem is, the price ain't even increasing up till August. FYI, it was still at IDR 650/kg at most in August. Heck, even only few people wanted to buy it at IDR 550/kg. Naturally, me and some of colleagues got kinda panic that time. Obviously, we were worried that we couldn't sell all these goods in hands. Once again FYI, it is difficult to stock rice bran for a long time. Stock it up up for to long (say, a year) and you'll have 30% of your goods eaten by ticks, if you're lucky. If not, just say goodbye to half of your goods.

In short, the price's starting to go up slowly now. As for today, I know some people who is willing to buy for IDR 1,200/kg, even though some want it no more than a thousand/kg. I bought a total of 4536 tons of that shit, and it generally costs me for about IDR 3.7 billion (about $400,000), not counting the transportation, loading, unloading, and other expenses. Mist of my colleagues are desperately selling their rice bran at the current price, as they're afraid that the price will go down again due to the coming rainy season or the risk of having their goods eaten by ticks. As for me, I don't have any probpem with ticks and leeches as I know how to deal with them, but the real problem is the coming of rainy season.

Right now, Java-Bali region is currently stuck in quite a long period of dry season. Cattle owners are in quite some need of green forage for their cattle, but due to this prolonged drought, there is not enought greeneries for everyone. Well, it usually happens quite often, like once every 3 years or so, but this years, those morons farm owners are getting a tad bit brighter and are stocking up fermented greeneries and dried forages to overcome the drought, and this caused the slow rise of price. And as for now, their stocks are gradually depleted and is in need of alternative goods to feed their cattle.

So, should I release the goods now for safety reason? Or should I hold them a little bit more, waiting for the price to rise to at least IDR 1,500/kg? According to the BMKG (the weather research institute or something like that), the rainy season should arrive during mid November, or early December at most. During this period (now till mid November), I predict that there will be even more price increase, given that BMKG's prediction is correct. However, if the rainy season comes earlier, then it's my doom.

So, what do you think? Sell or not to sell?

Give me a tl;dr version.

In short, sell now at low-to-no profit but safe or sell later but risk a huge loss.

Sell half to the former, and half to the latter.

Precisely what I'm doing. Problem is, how much should I hold and how much should I sell? Hold-half-sell-half policy ain't sounds good to my ears.

EDIT: Currently, I have a total of 320 tons of them used. 50 tons sold at 1200, 80 tons sold at 900, 120 tons sold at 850, 40 tons sold at 1000 and 20 tons at 700, 7.5 tons at 750 and 2.5 tons at 600.

nigga i dont fucking care about your shit.

Will you make profit selling it for 1200? If so, do that, then stock up again before the next increase? so you have fresh stuff?

1200 is indeed quite profitable, however only few desperate people are willing to pay this much. As for stocking, rice bran is a kind of seasonal commodity, therefore I can't just stock things up at whim. Furthermore, the competition for securing it is quite fierce, if I must say, as rice bran is considered vital as the cheapest, main source of energy in cattle and livestock feed.

Maybe I should just release some to those who are willing to pay no less than 900 for the time being and wait for the demand to increase, at least till mid October. If things don't go well till the time's up, then I'll just put it up for a bargain.

Sounds like a plan.

We need a mathematician here~!

has IB suddenly become a stock market forum?

I wonder, how did he reach the upper part of the blackboard?

Maybe there's one of them o' sliding stairs and/or the blackboard goes a bit further down?

Or he's Mister Fantastic.

Give me money and I'll figure out.